Unit 2: The Threat Assessment Process

1. Threat Assessment and Its Input to Risk Assessment

Definition of Threat Assessment

• Threat Assessment: The systematic evaluation of potential threats to identify their likelihood and potential impact on an organization.

• Purpose: To provide actionable insights for prioritizing risks and developing mitigation strategies.

Relationship Between Threat and Risk Assessment

1. Threat Identification:

   • Focuses on recognizing potential dangers (e.g., cyberattacks, natural disasters).

   • Input for risk assessment: Determines the probability and impact of these threats.

2. Risk Prioritization:

   • Threat data helps in categorizing risks based on severity.

   • Example: Identifying a high-probability cyberattack as a critical risk.

3. Mitigation Planning:

   • Combines threat intelligence with risk assessment results to create response strategies.

2. Threat Assessment Method

Steps in Threat Assessment

1. Identify Threats:

   • Methods: Brainstorming, expert consultations, historical data analysis.

   • Examples: Phishing attacks, extreme weather conditions, supply chain disruptions.

2. Analyze Threats:

   • Likelihood: How often the threat might occur (e.g., based on past incidents).

   • Impact: Consequences if the threat materializes (e.g., financial loss, reputational damage).

3. Evaluate Vulnerabilities:

   • Assess how susceptible the organization is to identified threats.

   • Example: Weak IT infrastructure increases vulnerability to cyber threats.

4. Prioritize Threats:

   • Use tools like risk matrices to rank threats by likelihood and impact.

5. Document Findings:

   • Create comprehensive reports for stakeholders.

   • Example: Include detailed threat descriptions, likelihood, potential impact, and recommendations.

Approaches to Threat Assessment

1. Quantitative:

   • Uses numerical data and statistical models.

   • Example: Calculating the monetary cost of a data breach.

2. Qualitative:

   • Relies on expert judgment and descriptive methods.

   • Example: Describing the reputational impact of a scandal.

3. Example Threat Assessment

Scenario: Cybersecurity Threat Assessment for an E-commerce Company

1. Threat Identification:

   • Phishing attacks targeting employee emails.

   • Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks.

2. Likelihood Analysis:

   • Phishing: High likelihood based on industry trends.

   • DDoS: Medium likelihood but with potential for high disruption.

3. Impact Assessment:

   • Financial Loss: Revenue loss due to downtime.

   • Reputational Damage: Loss of customer trust.

4. Vulnerability Evaluation:

   • Weak employee training on recognizing phishing attempts.

   • Insufficient investment in anti-DDoS solutions.

5. Recommendations:

   • Conduct regular cybersecurity training.

   • Invest in robust anti-DDoS technologies.

   • Implement multi-factor authentication for sensitive systems.